Revisited: Series Predictions
May 07, 2026
Before the gate dropped on the 2026 Monster Energy AMA Supercross season, we ranked our top 10 riders heading into the year. Now, with just one round remaining, it’s time to revisit those predictions and see how they held up...
Some riders exceeded expectations. Others struggled with injuries, inconsistency, bike issues, or simply never found momentum. Let’s look back at what we predicted versus what actually happened.
1. Chase Sexton
Our Preseason Prediction:
Simply put, Chase Sexton is the fastest guy (in this field) every Saturday when he lines up. The result? He’s the guy to beat for this title. It’s close, but I will give him a small edge over Webb simply based on his raw speed; most nights, Webb and his other competitors can’t match it. Chase does have some things going against him though: he’s adapting to a new bike/team, he tends to make mistakes/crash, and he lost in a 1v1 scenario to Webb last year. Regardless, we can’t bet against his speed! This will be his 6th year in the 450 class, and with each year he only gets better.
What Actually Happened:
Yeesh… defs not the fastest (nowhere close really); where did his speed go?! Clearly the “adapting to a new bike/team” did not go well… Chase continues to struggle and is a ghost of his former self. I don’t think anyone imagined the season going this poorly. Former questions about the bike seem super validated, but what about Chase himself? Is it all the bike? Overall… horrible prediction and horrible season for Chase.
2. Cooper Webb
Our Preseason Prediction:
It is hard to bet against Webb for this title given his past success (as recently as last year) against all of these guys. When he wills it, he has a mental grit unlike any of his other competitors. Honestly, it’s a wash-up between him and Sexton being the title favorite, but we had to pick one. Don’t be surprised if Webb pulls it out when it’s all said and done. However, he has struggled to defend championships in the past; after winning last year, how badly does he want to repeat?
What Actually Happened:
Not good. Webb had all the momentum entering the year as reigning champ but never came close to being a threat for the championship. All-in-all another season where Webb struggled to defend. We never saw enough speed or his usual late-race grit.
3. Eli Tomac
Our Preseason Prediction:
So many questions about Eli entering 2026: how does he like the new bike? How much longer is he going to race for? Despite his age, can he maintain his same raw speed? I think Eli will take some time to adapt to the new bike, but if he stays healthy (which has been a struggle as of late), he’ll figure things out and be in contention for the title by the end.
What Actually Happened:
Up and down with this one! We were wrong about taking time to adapt… Eli looked amazing right away at A1 on the new bike. However, the bike problems / weird issues did plague him mid-season. Regardless, Eli proved he still has the raw speed, and we were right about him being in title contention if he stays healthy (he was right there in the title hunt pre-injury). Alas, another injury during supercross for Eli.
4. Ken Roczen
Our Preseason Prediction:
If there was ever a time, now is it: 2026 is Kenny’s best chance of finally securing that 450 Supercross title. No doubt he has the speed, and he is becoming a supercross specialist (if he wasn’t already) with all the WSX off-season races. The Suzuki hasn’t changed in years, so him and the team must have it dialed in by now as well. Unfortunately, Roczen tends to be somewhat inconsistent in these longer championships. If he can figure that out and stay on two wheels, there’s a good chance he’s in the title hunt.
What Actually Happened:
There you go ^: Kenny’s best shot of winning a Supercross title is 2026. Sure enough, he enters the final round with the red plate; this is Kenny’s shot! We were right about him being in the title hunt if he figured out his late-season consistency, and kudos to him for figuring that out. This is maybe the best version we’ve ever seen of Kenny? He also clearly did have the bike dialed. Let’s see if he can pull it out come SLC!
5. Hunter Lawrence
Our Preseason Prediction:
Despite Hunter’s success outdoors and in SMX, he has never won a 450 Supercross before. That’s the big hurdle for him this year. With his brother Jett out, Hunter will be the lone 450 rider for HRC. If he can get that first win early in the season, I think he could surprise a lot of people and become the “guy to beat”. However, that’s a big “if”, and for some reason, he does seem to not perform as well when Jett is not on the track. 2026 Supercross will be Hunter’s chance to rise to the occasion and prove that he can solely carry the Lawrence name.
What Actually Happened:
Hunter proved that indeed he can carry the Lawrence name solely. He went out and got a win relatively early in the season and did become the “guy to beat”. He now has a chance to become the second Lawrence bro to win a 450SX title…
6. Justin Cooper
Our Preseason Prediction:
Cooper quietly gets better and better with every year. At the end of Supercross last season he was consistently one of the fastest guys on the track, and no doubt would have had better finishes if he wasn’t allowing his teammate Webb by. I think given a good start on a track where everyone is jumping the whoops, Cooper can pull out a lead and maintain it to get his first win. However, most nights he’ll be battling for top 5s.
What Actually Happened:
Most nights he’s still battling for top 5s, and he did get that triple crown race win! Progress for Cooper but not a massive improvement. Still searching for that first win.
7. Malcolm Stewart
Our Preseason Prediction:
I normally would say that Malcolm is just podium potential, but he proved us all wrong last year with a dominant victory in Tampa. So… it’s hard to argue that he can’t do that again at some point this season. He looked amazing in Paris for the off-season race, and perhaps 2026 will be the best Malcolm we’ve seen? Regardless, I think it’s a rarity when he is genuinely in it for the win; top 5s will be more likely.
What Actually Happened:
Hmmm even top 5s proved hard for Malcolm to get (although he did a few times!). The season started horribly for Malcolm when he was landed on by Barcia at A1, so perhaps we never got to see his full potential.
8. Jason Anderson
Our Preseason Prediction:
My prediction: we see a resurgence in Anderson this year. Don’t forget he started off the 2025 Supercross season with 3 podiums in the first 5 rounds. Most would consider moving from Factory Kawi to HEP Suzuki a downgrade, but that team has the bike dialed and Anderson seems to thrive in new environments. I think he has a chip on his shoulder and is riding to prove his haters (and former team) wrong. However, I do think there will be a learning curve to the new bike. He’ll be battling for the top 5, but inside the top 10 consistently.
What Actually Happened:
No bueno.
9. Aaron Plessinger
Our Preseason Prediction:
It was a weird end to the 2025 season for AP; let’s hope he has his health problems figured out. On the right day and with a good start, I think Plessinger can hold on for a podium finish in a race. But mostly, he'll be pushing just to get into the top 5. However, with a mud race, you never know!
What Actually Happened:
Health problems figured out? But then he got hurt… AP never even got into the top 5.
10. RJ Hampshire
Our Preseason Prediction:
I left Hampshire off this list for the 2025 Pro Motocross series and boy was I wrong. So I won’t make that mistake again. Hampshire was close to winning the 250E title last year despite coming in injured; he had a shorter off-season once again due to an off-season crash, but once the gate drops Hampshire will thrive. It’ll be an adjustment for sure, but I genuinely see him beating everyone else not on this list. He just needs to stay on two wheels!
What Actually Happened:
Not a good rookie season for Hampshire… he crashed a lot and then got injured. Hopefully he’s better for outdoors.
Riders We Left Off The List
Jorge Prado
Coming into the season, there were simply too many unknowns with Prado, the new team, and his Supercross abilities for us to confidently rank him inside the top 10. He proved us all wrong right away… Prado is the real deal and I’m excited to see him outdoors!
Final Thoughts
Fun predictions… great series… and now we enter the final round in Salt Lake City with a winner takes all showdown between Roczen and Lawrence. It’s an incredible season and story for both of them.
Let’s go racing and crown a new 450SX champ!
