Title Odds: 5 Rounds Left
April 08, 2026
A special op-ed for you all this week! In honor of the close 450 points chase, we wanted to breakdown our thoughts on the title odds.
Hunter Lawrence — 45%
It’s hard to bet against Hunter: he’s consistently fast, gets good starts, excels in the latter half of the race, and doesn’t make many mistakes. All-in-all, he’s been THE guy consistently for the entire season; it just feels like his to win right now.
He’s proven he can straight up beat Eli and Kenny. However, if both of those guys are riding to their best, does Hunter have the pure speed to beat / match them? For now, Hunter is the title favorite by simply being the most consistent. His main competitors have a bunch of question marks: can Tomac figure out his problems and rebound? Can Roczen deliver consistently? With Hunter, you know what to expect every weekend, which is crazy considering he had never won a 450SX before this year; it sure seems natural now.
Eli Tomac — 30%
I would have placed Tomac with much greater odds a few weeks ago. Alas, he just hasn’t looked himself as of late and it’s puzzling; we don’t know why. If he rides the way he has the past few weekends these odds drop close to zero. BUT, given the mystery behind his lack-luster performances, there’s always the chance that he rebounds and finds his early-season mojo.
Hence, the 30% is really an average of 60% and 0%… it’s a binary distribution. Your guess is as good as mine as to if Eli can turn it around: he either figures it out and greatly increases his chances at winning this title, or he continues with mediocre finishes and drops out of this title fight. He’s lucky to be tied for points right now; only time will tell if he will capitalize on that luck.
Ken Roczen — 25%
Roczen has clawed his way back into this title fight by a couple amazing wins, incredible speed, and taking advantage of bad performances from the other guys. However, he still needs to make up 5 points; that’s easy if he rides like he has the past couple weekends, but do we expect him to keep that up?
It’s hard to tell: we’ve never seen Kenny in the title fight this late into the season before. It’s arguably the best he’s ridden post-arm injury, so the speed is undoubtedly there. The biggest question is if he can deliver that speed every weekend and combine that with good starts and zero mistakes. He has all the momentum right now.
One thing to note: Roczen has been good for most of the year. In fact, he should have even more points if not for crashes at A2, Indy, and Seattle (remember when Lawrence took him out? That could go on to be pivotal in this title fight). It’s kinda miraculous that given all those moments he’s still in it for the title.
Other guys (a.k.a. Cooper Webb) — <<< 1%
Unfortunately it does appear over for the reigning champion Webb. He has been fast, but has struggled with crashes and starts. He’s probably kicking himself for not taking advantage of problems from Tomac and Lawrence like Roczen did. It could have been a different story if Webb
