Series Predictions: 2026 450 Supercross
January 08, 2026
The 2026 Monster Energy AMA Supercross season is upon us! 17 rounds racing in stadiums across the country; epic. Here are our top 10 series predictions.
1. Chase Sexton
Title Favorite
Simply put, Chase Sexton is the fastest guy (in this field) every Saturday when he lines up. The result? He’s the guy to beat for this title. It’s close, but I will give him a small edge over Webb simply based on his raw speed; most nights, Webb and his other competitors can’t match it. Chase does have some things going against him though: he’s adapting to a new bike/team, he tends to make mistakes/crash, and he lost in a 1v1 scenario to Webb last year. Regardless, we can’t bet against his speed! This will be his 6th year in the 450 class, and with each year he only gets better.
2. Cooper Webb
Title Contender
It is hard to bet against Webb for this title given his past success (as recently as last year) against all of these guys. When he wills it, he has a mental grit unlike any of his other competitors. Honestly, it’s a wash-up between him and Sexton being the title favorite, but we had to pick one. Don’t be surprised if Webb pulls it out when it’s all said and done. However, he has struggled to defend championships in the past; after winning last year, how badly does he want to repeat?
3. Eli Tomac
Title Contender
So many questions about Eli entering 2026: how does he like the new bike? How much longer is he going to race for? Despite his age, can he maintain his same raw speed? I think Eli will take some time to adapt to the new bike, but if he stays healthy (which has been a struggle as of late), he’ll figure things out and be in contention for the title by the end.
4. Ken Roczen
Title Contender
If there was ever a time, now is it: 2026 is Kenny’s best chance of finally securing that 450 Supercross title. No doubt he has the speed, and he is becoming a supercross specialist (if he wasn’t already) with all the WSX off-season races. The Suzuki hasn’t changed in years, so him and the team must have it dialed in by now as well. Unfortunately, Roczen tends to be somewhat inconsistent in these longer championships. If he can figure that out and stay on two wheels, there’s a good chance he’s in the title hunt.
5. Hunter Lawrence
Race Winning Potential
Despite Hunter’s success outdoors and in SMX, he has never won a 450 Supercross before. That’s the big hurdle for him this year. With his brother Jett out, Hunter will be the lone 450 rider for HRC. If he can get that first win early in the season, I think he could surprise a lot of people and become the “guy to beat”. However, that’s a big “if”, and for some reason, he does seem to not perform as well when Jett is not on the track. 2026 Supercross will be Hunter’s chance to rise to the occasion and prove that he can solely carry the Lawrence name.
6. Justin Cooper
Race Winning Potential
Cooper quietly gets better and better with every year. At the end of Supercross last season he was consistently one of the fastest guys on the track, and no doubt would have had better finishes if he wasn’t allowing his teammate Webb by. I think given a good start on a track where everyone is jumping the whoops, Cooper can pull out a lead and maintain it to get his first win. However, most nights he’ll be battling for top 5s.
7. Malcom Stewart
Race Winning Potential
I normally would say that Malcom is just podium potential, but he proved us all wrong last year with a dominant victory in Tampa. So… it’s hard to argue that he can’t do that again at some point this season. He looked amazing in Paris for the off-season race, and perhaps 2026 will be the best Malcolm we’ve seen? Regardless, I think it’s a rarity when he is genuinely in it for the win; top 5s will be more likely.
8. Jason Anderson
Podium Potential
My prediction: we see a resurgence in Anderson this year. Don’t forget he started off the 2025 Supercross season with 3 podiums in the first 5 rounds. Most would consider moving from Factory Kawi to HEP Suzuki a downgrade, but that team has the bike dialed and Anderson seems to thrive in new environments. I think he has a chip on his shoulder and is riding to prove his haters (and former team) wrong. However, I do think there will be a learning curve to the new bike. He’ll be battling for the top 5, but inside the top 10 consistently.
9. Aaron Plessinger
Podium Potential
It was a weird end to the 2025 season for AP; let’s hope he has his health problems figured out. On the right day and with a good start, I think Plessinger can hold on for a podium finish in a race. But mostly, he'll be pushing just to get into the top 5. However, with a mud race, you never know!
10. RJ Hampshire
Top 5 Potential
I left Hampshire off this list for the 2025 Pro Motocross series and boy was I wrong. So I won’t make that mistake again. Hampshire was close to winning the 250E title last year despite coming in injured; he had a shorter off-season once again due to an off-season crash, but once the gate drops Hampshire will thrive. It’ll be an adjustment for sure, but I genuinely see him beating everyone else not on this list. He just needs to stay on two wheels!
So many other guys not even mentioned in this article, but that makes it so much more exciting! How will Prado do? What about the new Ducati guys Barcia and Ferrandis? Can Justin Hill get more top 10s? Will Forkner rise to the occasion with a chance in the 450 class for the first time in his career? Let's go racing!
Our Opinions
Scott's Opinion: Can't wait to see this play out over the next few months! Without Jett in the picture, I think we have two main title contenders (Chase and Webb) with Eli not too far behind. Roczen is in the picture too. And who knows, maybe Hunter can step up and it'll be another Lawrence show! Honestly, it's anyone's title to claim. Let's go!!
