SMX Playoffs: Series Predictions
September 04, 2025
Image from Feld Motor Sports, Inc.
We're almost done 2025 racing... but first, SMX Playoffs! 3 rounds to capture the title.. who will get it done?
450 Class
1. Jett Lawrence -- Title Favorite
Jett is 2 for 2 in SMX Playoffs, and after winning the Pro Motocross championship in dominating fashion, it's hard not to imagine him winning these Playoffs. The only way he doesn't win the title is injury, crashes, or bad starts; no one beats him straight up. If he gets bad starts (some of these SMX tracks have proven difficult to pass on), then things might get interesting. Fortunately for him, he's a great starter, so expect another title for Jett.
2. Chase Sexton -- Title Contender
In my opinion, Sexton is Jett's greatest title combatant. Out of the remaining riders, Sexton is the one with the most speed. Theoretically he should be able to pressure Jett, but Sexton's weakness is off the gate and not being able to catch and pass Jett. Most of the time, he loses the race within the first 10 seconds. Can he turn that around? If he starts up front, he can apply A LOT more pressure.
3. Hunter Lawrence -- Title Contender
Hunter excelled last year in SMX and was super close to winning the title. He ended the motocross season on a high note with a moto win, but I just don't see him having the pace consistently to beat Jett (prove me wrong!). Nonetheless, Hunter will be in contention, and if Jett falters, expect Hunter to be one of the favorites.
4. Eli Tomac -- Title Contender
Tomac had his ups and downs in motocross, but he likes this SMX format and no doubt has the pace to run up front. If he's comfortable with the bike and gets good starts, he will pressure for the title. Those are two big IFs though... we will see.
5. Justin Cooper -- Podium Potential
Cooper leads the SMX points heading into Playoff 1 and will be seeded with max points. However, I just don't see him having the pace to consistently beat the guys ranked in front of him. If he gets good starts he can edge them out for a podium, but unless luck is on his side, he won't get any race wins.
6. Ken Roczen -- Podium Potential
You never know with Kenny! On the right day and with a good start, Roczen grabs a podium in a race (or even wins?). But those conditions are hard to meet… otherwise, he should be happy with top 5s.
7. Cooper Webb -- Top 5 Potential
The Supercross champ has yet to prove himself in these SMX conditions. After coming off an injury, it’s hard to imagine him keeping up with the guys in front of him. He’s feisty though and won’t give up, so he could surprise with podiums. Otherwise, he’ll be on the edge of top 5s.
8. Malcom Stewart -- Top 5 Potential
Stewart had a breakout year in Supercross, but he wasn’t able to carry that momentum over into Pro Motocross. When he’s feeling confident and comfortable, he could be inside that top 5. Unfortunately SMX is lacking his greatest strength (whoops), so it’s hard to imagine him consistently up there. It’ll be mostly top 10s for him.
9. RJ Hampshire -- Top 5 Potential
Hampshire’s 450 debut surprised me with top 5 finishes and the rare podium in Pro Motocross. He has the potential to run in the top 5 given a good start, but it’ll be a learning curve racing with these guys on a SMX-style track.
10. Justin Barcia -- Top 10
Barcia can be fiery, but lately his starts have gone away and we haven’t seen his best. He spent the summer battling with Stewart in that 6-9 range; I’d expect most of the same in these Playoffs.
250 Class
1. Haiden Deegan -- Title Favorite
No duhhh.... Deegan is clearly the title favorite. He’s 2 for 2 in SMX titles and has a ton of momentum right now. It’s hard to imagine anyone consistently beating him. It’ll take crashes, injury, or bad starts for him not to win this title.
2. Jo Shimoda -- Title Contender
Shimoda took a big step up in Pro Motocross this summer and proved he’s the next best guy. He’ll need some luck on his side (in my opinion) to win the Playoffs, but no doubt he has the potential to win a race or two. He’s Deegan’s main (only?) title contender.
3. Levi Kitchen -- Race Winning Potential
Levi's goal should be to win the title... but he had a challenging Pro Motocross season and I just don’t see him being able to consistently beat Shimoda or Deegan. On a good day there’s potential for a race win and an overall podium.
4. Cole Davies -- Race Winning Potential
Am I too high on Davies? Maybe… but I think he’s genuinely the only other rider with race winning potential against the likes of Shimoda and Deegan. I don’t expect him to be consistently up there, but given a good start, he can match the pace for a race. And he’s a super quick learner…
5. Tom Vialle -- Podium Potential
Tom is now a 2x SX champ and a previous MX2 champ in the GPs, so he has what it takes to win titles. But, Pro Motocross did not go well, and all signs point to him leaving KTM/US after these playoffs. I question where he’ll be at mentally, but I think the bike will be better than outdoors (they had a fading shock which shouldn’t be a problem in these shorter races) and it’s a good format for him, so maybe some podiums?
So many other guys not even mentioned in this article (particularly in 250s), but that makes it so much more exciting! How will Hammaker fair? Will Prado race? Any 250 guys going to step it up? Let's go racing!
