The last qualifying session of the 2017 Monster Energy AMA Supercross Championship is done. Adam Cianciarulo and Jason Anderson came out the quickest in Sam Boyd Stadium, but the lap times were close between the championship contenders behind them (in both classes).

The track is very hard pack, perhaps the driest and hardest track we’ve seen all season. This is a big change for a lot of these riders after dealing with some super soft tracks this year. Regardless, it does resemble the supercross tracks commonly seen in SoCal where most of these guys train, so everyone should be fine with it.

In the 250 East class, the championship battle is on! Zach Osborne is by far the quickest though so far (out of the championship contenders), with a lap time 1.1 seconds faster than Joey Savatgy, and 1.4 seconds faster than Jordon Smith. However, the track was definitely mint in their session, and it will change a lot by the time the main event rolls around. Hence, it’s tough to predict the outcome of the championship battle solely based off of these qualifying results.

Dylan Ferrandis made a heavy statement in the press conference last weekend when he stated that he felt the 250 East riders were faster than the West. Well, so far he’s right, as 4 out of 5 riders in the top 5 were from the East division, and Smith wasn’t far back either in 7th.

Eli Tomac grabbed the quickest lap time in the first session, but took a really long time to get a fast lap time in the second. Finally, he got in a solid lap right at the end to end up 2nd. It’s a must win for him tonight if he wants to win this championship, but even then, Dungey needs to finish 5th or worse (which hasn’t happened all year).

Here are the qualifying results:

250 East vs. West:

S2QCOVR

450:

S1QCOVR

My Opinion: It’s the last round of the series!! NOOOO!! It goes by too fast, but it’s bitter sweet because outdoors are starting soon!

I don’t know what to think of this track yet… it’s definitely super slick, which makes it technical, but in all other aspects it’s not technical at all. Sure, two semi-hard whoop sections, and then one long (but seemingly easy) rhythm section. It all depends on how well this track breaks down, but I really don’t think it will be great for racing on. Just a prediction… we will see, I hope that I’m wrong!

Wowza, finally Jason Anderson found some speed. He’s A LOT faster than most of the field right now, but just a little too late for him in this championship. Seriously though, he deserves a “most improved” trophy, because he has picked it up a lot lately.

250 East title: who will win? At this point, it’s really though to not choose Osborne. There’s no doubt he has been the fastest all year in that class. I’m choosing him to win it. For 2nd, it’s a toss-up between Savatgy and Smith. If Smith starts in front of Savatgy, I choose him; Savatgy just can’t get around Smith this year!

And sadly, I don’t think there’s any chance that Tomac wins this title. Statistically speaking (without the stats yet, but to come!), it’s just not probable. It’s possible, but not probable. Dungey hasn’t finished worse than 4th this year, and he has to tonight for Eli to have a chance at winning.

My picks for the podiums are:

250:

  1. Zach Osborne
  2. Joey Savatgy
  3. Adam Cianciarulo

450:

  1. Eli Tomac
  2. Jason Anderson
  3. Ryan Dungey

Cover photo from Supercross LIVE

Scott Yargeau

I grew up racing motocross in a small town in Canada, and I now work as a mathematician in New York City. Combining my two passions, I'm excited to apply my skills in data analysis to the sport to produce stats-based race reports and projections.

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